Expected impact of the electric vehicles fleet on the electric consumption of the Province of Milan
Demand of electricity and its evolution in Italy and in the Province of Milan
In order to assess the electric vehicles impact on the energy supply system it is necessary to have detailed information about the electric grid capacity, the yearly energy consumption and the time dependent electric power required in the geographical area under investigation. In Italy these data are collected and published by the society TERNA S.p.A. (http://www.terna.it/) which is one the Italian electric provider. Unfortunately available data are not very detailed for what concerns the Provincial Scale. However, data regarding the total electric energy consumption for the last year is available at that scale, while the past energy consumption trend is available at a Regional scale and the power required to the grid (for the current year and also an estimate for the following 10 years) is available only at a National level (Terna 2007a,b,c,d).
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Starting from the available data it was possible to estimate the future trend for the yearly electric energy consumption of the Lombardy Region (see Figure 4) and of the entire Italy. Then the same trend has been applied to the Province of Milan. By using the ratio between the Milan and Italian yearly electric energy demand and the peak power requested to the Italian grid, the peak power requested by the Province of Milan has been also estimated.
In the same way also the power peak trend for the Province of Milan has been obtained starting from the available trend of the peak power required for Italy. In Figure 5 the daily trend of the electric power requested to the grid is showed per each month of the year 2007. It is very interesting to notice that, apart from the summer months (in which the use of the car is much more differentiated and thus the impact of the electric vehicles on the grid would be more difficult to estimate), the peak power load is requested to the network during the time interval 4.30-6.00pm in which, it is possible to hypothesize, there will be also an high power request for the vehicles battery charging (commuters coming back home and plugging-in the vehicle to get it ready to be used the day after). For this reason the calculated value of vehicle electric power request has been compared with this peak value.
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